Posted on 26 Sep 2018
US sheet prices may decay just a little further before truly bouncing off of bottom, but the unruliness of the market so far this year makes normal seasonal patterns unreliable, market sources tell Kallanish.
Kallanish held its hot-rolled price Monday at $840-890/short ton and its cold-rolled price at $950-1,000/st. All prices are ex-works, domestic mill.
Though the bulk of hot-rolled is currently selling for $840-860/st, at least some buyers have seen prices as low as $820/st - and some near-term predictions are down to the $800/st mark.
The longevity of the Trump administration's 232 measures, however, have thrown some doubt on to whether the market will hit its usual seasonal bottom in late October, says one Midwest buyer.
"The market's taking a deep breath, [... but] things are pretty good," he says. "This market is like no other."
A second Midwest buyer says the theme for the fourth quarter seems to be adjustment, whether or not the 232s survive President Donald Trump's mid-term election challenge. President Trump's Republican Party is widely believed to be trailing to the rival Democratic Party in the polls heading up to the November elections, which could force changes to the 232 trade measures.
"In a word - adjustment," the buyer says. "Adjustment to mill order books, inventories, capacity, and the 232. Nothing is permanent in the steel industry. And a generic, modified 232 will live on through the Trump era."
