Posted on 29 Jul 2019
A glut of Indian-origin hot rolled coil is depressing market sentiment in Southeast Asia. Prices of Indian material, already the cheapest compared to other origins, could falter some more, Kallanish understands.
Traders took positions when the market was creeping up. A large trading house booked 100,000 tonnes of Indian SAE 1006 2mm and up thickness HRC over the past month, starting when prices were at $480/t fob India and up to $510/t fob, an Indian trader relates. Others did the same too and are now letting go of these positions, he says.
Most Indian mills are currently offering at $500/t fob, but some are offering at $495/t fob too, an Indian trader says. Current offers from Indian mills to Vietnam are prevailing at $510-515/t cfr, but bids are at $500-505/t cfr, he adds.
Indian HRC is currently offered at $510/t cfr Vietnam, a Vietnamese trader comments. While the supplier is inviting bids at $505/t cfr, he has not heard of bids. Deals for Indian HRC last took place at around $510/t cfr Vietnam during the week beginning 15 July.
However, some Chinese trading sources report hearing an offer for Indian HRC at $505/t cfr Vietnam which others could not confirm.
A regional trader reports that some suppliers are accepting bids at $485/t fob India into the Middle East, which would imply that these suppliers could accept around $500/t cfr SE Asia. But traders are holding their prices because they still have a lot of high-priced unsold cargoes, he says. However, the market could find support if iron ore remains firm till September when the weak Indian domestic market is expected to rebound (see separate report).
In Vietnam, Japanese and South Korean 2mm base SAE 1006 HRC are still offered at $540/t cfr and $530/t cfr respectively.
Kallanish assessed 2-2.7mm SAE1006 HRC at $505-510/t cfr Vietnam, down $5 on-week.
