Posted on 27 Nov 2019
Ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday, US sheet buyers predict a roughly steady-state market through year-end, Kallanish reports.
Though mill list prices are now about $590-600/short ton, following a double increase in November, the market will likely settle right around the $560/st mark, several buy-side sources concluded.
Kallanish currently puts hot-rolled at $540-560/st, with cold-rolled at $740-760/st. All prices are ex-works, domestic mill.
“Mills are already struggling to sell some volumes at prices north of $500/st, hence the rapid-fire increase announcements,” says one buyer. “Without a demand shift or significant change in output, I’ll be surprised if prices are still rising at the end of January.”
A second agrees that $560/st seems palatable in the near-to-medium term for the market-at-large, while a third points out that fundamentals don’t seem to support hot-rolled at $600/st.
“$600/st is a very high bar,” he says. “The June 2019 to October 2019 price pattern is set to repeat for several iterations. They may be shorter or longer in length from low to high to low, and the lows and highs will be a bit varied.”
He adds that his year-end prediction for hot-rolled is somewhere between $540-575/st.
“This current version, from a very low end of October, has rising scrap and world finished steel prices in support,” he says. “The June to October 2019 trip didn’t have this. So maybe the prices rise a bit longer and go a bit higher.”
