Posted on 13 Nov 2007
In line with expectation of global economic slowdown, the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) predicts that Taiwan`s economic growth in 2008 will reach 4.39%, lower than 2007`s 4.41%, but pressure from soaring international oil and raw-material prices will be alleviated next year.
TIER forecasts that wholesale price index (WPI) growth next year will drop to 1.03%, down from this year`s 5.35%, although consumer price index (CPI) growth will advance to 1.9%, higher than 2007`s 1.6%, but will under the 2% mark.
Hung believed that international oil prices have peaked and may even trend downward next year, when supply will exceed demand in the international market, according to major international forecast bodies. Similar scenario will also occur for raw materials, whose demand will drop considerably next year, due to slowdown of the global economy.
TIER revised upward its forecast for Taiwan`s economic growth in 2007 to 4.41%, up from original 4.21%, citing increase of private-investment growth to 4.5%, due to steady international and domestic economic expansion, as well as continuing capacity expansion among domestic manufacturers.
The institute forecasts that
Taiwan`s exports will advance 9.38% in 2008, when imports will grow 10.33%, resulting in a trade surplus of US$25.87 billion. Exchange rate of the NT dollar will average US$1=NT$32.38 next year, according to TIER.
