News Room - Business/Economics

Posted on 27 Nov 2007

Philippines’ GDP likely grew 7.1% in 3rd quarter

The Philippine economy likely expanded in the third quarter by as much as 7.1percent from a year earlier, setting it on course for its strongest growth in over three decades this year, a senior government official said.

Augusto Santos, the government’s economic planning chief, told reporters on Monday that third quarter growth could come in between 6.1 and 7.1 percent. If GDP hit 7 percent in the July-Sept period from a year earlier, the full-year performance would likely be 7 percent, the strongest pace since 1976.

"The fourth quarter is normally higher than the third quarter because of higher consumer spending," Santos said.

He said the low-end of the forecast range for the third quarter reflected the possible impact of high oil prices on economic growth while the high-end reflected stronger-than-expected output from the farm sector.

The agriculture and forestry sector in the third quarter may have grown 5 to 5.8 percent from a year earlier, services by 6.5 to 7.3 percent, and industry by 6.1 to 7.3 percent, Santos said.

Official economic growth data for the third quarter will be announced on Nov. 29.

Analysts have said the Philippines needs to sustain growth of more than 7 percent to substantially reduce poverty, which affects about 30 percent of the population, official statistics show.

GDP grew an annual 7.3 percent in the first half, with second quarter growth of 7.5 percent, the highest in two decades due to strong domestic consumption and higher public spending.

The economy expanded 5.4 percent in 2006.

But bad weather could throw off the rosy 2007 forecast, with northern ricefields already battered by Typhoon Mitag late on Sunday.