Posted on 18 Dec 2007
Indonesia`s economic growth rate in 2008 is expected to reach six percent only, instead of 6.8 percent as officially projected, an economic researcher said here on Monday.
"Indonesia`s economic growth rate next year is estimated to settle at between six and 6.5 percent only. The higher figure can be reached only if the economic performance level in 2007 can be maintained next year," Latif Adam, an economic researcher at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) said.
He said the weak economic agenda of the Indonesian cabinet, the sluggishness of world economic growth and the increase in oil prices in the world market would have a significant effect on Indonesia`s economic growth rate next year.
Adam said the global economy had been discouraged by the oil
price hikes in the world market and the subprime mortgage crisis in the
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that the world`s economic growth would slow down from 5.2 percent to 4.8 percent in 2008.
"Only
The LIPI researcher said the United State would see an economic growth stagnation at 1.9 percent while the growth of the European Union`s economy would drop from 2.5 percent to 2.1 percent and Japan`s from two percent to 1.7 percent.
He said about 45 percent of Indonesia`s direct exports would be shipped to the three destinations. There were also indications that Indonesia`s exports to Singapore, Hong Kong and China would be reexported to the United States, Europe and Japan.
"Economic sluggishness in the three destinations of Indonesia`s exports will automatically disturb Indonesia`s economic performance. And the world`s hope for economic drive is likely to turn to China, India and Russia," Adam said.
But the problem was that the IMF prediction indicated that China`s and India`s economies would also slow down. In the 2007- 2008 period, China`s economic growth was expected to drop from 11.5 percent to 10 percent and India`s from 8.9 percent to 8.4 percent, he said.(*)
