Posted on 31 Dec 2007
Private investment and consumption continued to rise in November, according to the latest data released by the Bank of Thailand. Amara Sriphayak, a senior director for the central bank's Domestic Economy Department, said that private investment in November slowed by 0.6% from the previous month as the October figures were inflated by aircraft imports.
However, private investment accelerated to 3.5% year-on-year in November, compared with 2.3% year-on-year in October.
For the first 11 months of the year, private investment fell 1% compared with the same period last year, compared with a 3.2% year-on-year decline for the first half of the year.
Dr Amara said that trends should improve over the next few
months as public spending picks up in 2008.
She said passenger car sales were a drag on consumption
figures in November as consumers delayed new purchases to take advantage of new
tax incentives for E20 gasohol-compatible cars taking effect on Jan 1. Many
consumers were also awaiting year-end promotions by carmakers at the December
motor show.
Other consumption indicators, including value-added tax
receipts and imports of consumer goods, improved in November from the previous
month.
Consumption grew 1.3% year-on-year for the first 11 months
of the year, compared with 2.4% growth in 2006.
Exports in November reached a record at $14.6 billion, up
24.5% from the year before, when the US dollar was worth about 7% more than it
is now. Exports were strong across the board and underpinned by high global
farm prices for commodities such as rice, tapioca and poultry. Demand was also
strong for high-technology products.
November imports totalled $12.6 billion, up 17% from the year before. Capital goods imports declined by 10.2% year-on-year due to base effects and the imports of three aircraft last year.
Dr Amara said tourism revenues accelerated in November, rising 10.8% from last year in terms of arrivals. Hotel occupancy for the month averaged 64%.
The current account surplus in November totalled $2.7 billion, with a $2- billion trade surplus and a $0.7 billion surplus in the service account.
Dr Amara said that economic growth in the fourth quarter would likely pick up from the 4.9% rate recorded for the third quarter, given the latest data posted for October and November. December was also historically a strong month for the economy.
''The economy this year has not been as gloomy as many have believed. This will benefit the new government next year, and domestic demand has improved as well,'' she said.
Dr Amara said 2007 economic growth was likely to remain within the central bank's forecast of 4.3% to 4.9%, given average growth of 4.5% for the first three quarters of the year.
She said policies by the Surayud Chulanont government to promote exports and the new eco-car project had helped investment trends.
Private investment should increase further in 2008 with the launch of new mass-transit investment projects by the government.
''We expect the government to accelerate public spending and increase the fiscal deficit in 2008. In any case, the fiscal deficit should focus on investment, rather than consumption,'' Dr Amara said.
She said the
The central bank currently projects economic growth in 2008 at 4.5% to 6%, with its estimates due to be revised at the end of January.
