News Room - Business/Economics

Posted on 23 Apr 2008

FTI foresees gloomy Q2 results

Thai industrial activity will slow even further in the second quarter as the impact of the global slowdown sinks in, says Santi Vilassakdanont, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI). 

''Lots of negative factors that have arisen lately will be reflected in the financial results of private companies in the next quarter,'' Mr Santi said.

Uncertainty in the world economy remains, driven by several major threats. Crude prices, which affect production costs, continue to depress the economy.

In addition, the impact of the US sub-prime crisis on the world economy has not yet bottomed out. Economists predict more adverse effects at least throughout the third quarter of this year.

''The FTI's survey also shows the same thing _ business operators lack confidence and foresee a dimmer future,'' he said.

Amid the gloomy outlook, however, there are some bright spots. High farm prices in recent months have increased the purchasing power of farmers. Motorcycle sales are therefore expected to jump by 7% from flat growth last year.

Passenger cars are doing even better. Some 160,000 units were sold in first quarter, a 16% rise from the same quarter last year.

''Apart from automobiles, electronic appliances should benefit from the situation,'' added Adisak Rohitasune, an FTI vice-chairman.

He said domestic car sales this year could reach 680,000 units, 50,000 units more than last year.

''We expect 80% of the domestic car sales to be small cars with engines under 1,600cc,'' Mr Adisak said, citing high fuel prices and the government's policy to promote E20 fuel, a mixture of 20% ethanol, as the reasons.

The FTI suggested that the government control raw-material prices to help curb rising production costs, adding that price caps and import taxes on steel, animal feed and petrochemical products should be considered.

''It should also start megaprojects immediately to inject more money into the economy,'' Mr Santi said.

In addition, the FTI wants the government to reconsider the crude-oil import tax.

Mr Santi says the government should see whether the benefit it gains from higher crude import taxes collected due to more expensive crude should be reviewed to lift pressure on local fuel prices, or whether it should be more proactive about alternative fuel.