Posted on 05 Mar 2009
Iron ore price negotiations between Chinese steel mills and big global miners are likely to end in April since the miners are dragging their feet, hoping for demand to recover, an executive with China's No. 2 steel maker said on Thursday.
"The miners are waiting for a positive influence on steel demand from
But Liu's expectation of an April end to the annual talks was earlier than some market participants and analysts expect.
"The steel mills will wait now for things to play out, and I don't see a settlement before June, maybe later," said Mark Pervan, senior commodities analyst at ANZ, adding that there was a wide gulf between the two parties.
"The 5 percent increase that the producers flagged has created a real sticking point, especially with the mills looking for cuts of 40 to 50 percent," he said.
Liu said he heard talk that some miners were offering discounts to Chinese steel mills in order to secure sales volume but stressed that weak demand from China, the world's top metals consumer, was a strong justification for lower term prices. "I think domestic demand will not increase hugely due to the stimulus plan," he said, adding that Chinese steel demand had started to improve but a full recovery was expected to take a long time.
"SUCKER'S RALLY"
An uptick in steel prices and exports at the start of this year cheered the gloomy commodity markets, with some traders seeing the chance of a return of Chinese demand thanks to the economic stimulus package.
"The recent gains in iron ore were a false dawn -- a sucker's rally," said Pervan.
Executives from Baosteel and Beijing-based Shougang Iron & Steel Group, speaking on the sidelines of
Liu was more optimistic. Chinese mills were idling 5-10 percent of their capacity, but that was a marked improvement from a 20-40 percent production cut last October, when Chinese domestic steel prices slumped on weakened demand, he said.
Following
"We have already contacted them, but so far we do not have any actual results," Liu said. Chinese firms scored a hat-trick last month, with Aluminum Corp of
Hebei Iron and Steel, which produced almost 34 million tonnes of crude steel last year, expects output to grow 18 percent to 40 million tonnes in 2009 as a new flagship production facility designed to produce 5 million tonnes of high-quality steel plate and coil, comes onstream at its Handan subsidiary, Liu said.