Posted on 10 Jun 2009
The pace of decline in
The pace of drop in the industrial production index, a measure of manufacturing, mining and electricity output, has already slowed to 14.4 per cent in March from January's 19.8 per cent, suggesting that the worst of the economic downturn may be over.
Eight out of the 12 economists surveyed expected a slower decline for April output even though exports in the same month plunged 26.3 per cent from a year ago, significantly weaker than expectations and worse than the 15.7 per cent fall in March.
ING economist Prakash Sakpal said restocking in inventories was being seen around the region, which should help factory output.
"We've seen some restocking of inventories outside the region. Exports is the weak link (but) the inventory correction is almost over," he said, adding production was likely to continue increasing on a month-on-month basis in April.
But other economists were not as optimistic. They said industrial output was likely to fall further due to weakening exports.
"The bleak export data for the same month released earlier should afford us a glimpse for April industrial production," said Joanna Tan from Singapore-based Forecast Pte Ltd.
