News Room - Business/Economics

Posted on 24 Jun 2009

World Bank cuts 2009 global growth forecast

The World Bank has cut its 2009 global growth forecast, saying the world economy will shrink 2.9 percent and warning that a drop in investment in developing countries will increase poverty.

 

"The global recession has deepened," the multilateral lender said in a report.

 

Global trade is expected to plunge 9.7 percent this year, while total gross domestic product for high-income countries will contract 4.2 percent, the bank said. It said economic growth in developing countries should slow to 1.2 percent — but excluding relatively strong China and India, developing economies will contract 1.6 percent.

 

The bank's latest forecast is a sharp reduction from its March prediction of a 1.7 percent global contraction, which it said then would be the worst on record.

 

Workers load a cargo container on a truck at a dock in Tokyo June 22, 2009. Pessimism at big Japanese manufacturing firms eased in the three months to June, data on Monday showed, while the World Bank said prospects for the global economy remain "unusually uncertain" as it cut 2009 growth forecasts for most economies. (Reuters)

Economic damage to developing countries "has been much deeper and broader than previous crises," warned the report, issued Sunday in Washington.

 

"Unemployment is on the rise, and poverty is set to increase in developing economies," it said.

 

The global economy should start to grow again in late 2009, but "the expected recovery is projected to be much less vigorous than normal," the report said. It said banks' ability to finance investment and consumer spending would be hampered by the overhang of unpaid loans and devalued assets.

 

"To break the cycle and revive lending and growth, bold policy measures, along with substantial international coordination, are needed," the World Bank said.

 

Investment and other financial flows to developing countries plunged by an estimated 39 percent in 2008 to $707 billion, the World Bank said. It said foreign direct investment in developing countries is projected to drop 30 percent this year to $385 billion.

 

Eastern Europe and Central Asia have been hit hardest and the region's gross domestic product is expected to plunge 4.7 percent this year, the bank said. It said growth should recover next year to 1.6 percent.

 

GDP in Latin America and the Caribbean should shrink 2.3 percent this year before rebounding to expand by 2 percent in 2010, the report said.

 

In the Middle East and North Africa, growth is expected to fall half this year to 3.1 percent, while that of sub-Saharan Africa will drop to 1 percent from an annual average of 5.7 percent over the past three years, the bank said.

 

East Asia should post a 5 percent expansion, supported in part by China's stimulus-fueled growth, the bank said.