Posted on 06 Aug 2009
Bank sees 3.5% Thai uptick in 2010
Deutsche Bank believes Thailand's economic growth next year will be 3.5%, supported by a global economic recovery, according to chief economist Norbert Walter.
Dr Walter, speaking at a briefing in Bangkok yesterday, said the global economy would post annual growth between 1% and 1.5% in 2010 following a contraction of 3% this year.
Recent economic data have pointed to improvements, as global trade volume is expected to resume next year after it bottoms out. That volume should contract 10-15% this year due to shrinking demand in world markets.
Strong fundamentals and recovery signs in the Asian economy would be key support signals for world economic growth next year, particularly from China, India and Indonesia. China should be the first country to recover from the current crisis, partly due to an effective stimulus package.
For Thailand, Dr Walter predicted an economic contraction of 4% this year, mainly affected by falling production and consumption as a result of global factors. Meanwhile, the country's foreign reserves and short-term debt position are much stronger than during the 1997 crisis.
"To build up foreign confidence is the key challenge for Thailand now. The country should make it clear to international investors that its current economic downturn is due to external factors," he said.
He foresees a positive trend for exports in the long term due to the country's various array of products. Thailand is particularly competitive in consumer goods. Global demand in this sector remains steady and should increase going forward.
Asian co-operation is another key factor to improve and develop the regional economy.
