Posted on 07 Oct 2009
Economists remain cautious on Malaysia’s external trade position as restocking continues to be a factor in boosting exports from the country and elsewhere in the region, despite the more positive economic data streaming in from abroad.
Prominent economists Nouriel Roubini and Joseph Stiglitz have in recent days expressed doubt over the sustainability of a faster and more durable global economic recovery.
Furthermore, the
The Statistics Department is expected to release external trade data tomorrow.
Citigroup Inc senior economist Kit Wei Zheng expects improvement in both month-on-month and year-on-year external trade figures for
However, he told StarBiz that the country continued to be a “big laggard” where electrical and electronics (E&E) exports were concerned, compared with
“There’s still some scope for cyclical catch-up to the end of the year and orders have been coming back since late June which, in turn, has given a boost to factory production and exports,” Kit said.
He said the domestic front would play a much bigger role in the country’s economic growth, going forward, with RM4bil to RM5bil already spent in the quarter ended September, mostly in the construction sector.
“This spending added another 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points to gross domestic product growth,” Kit noted.
Both United Overseas Bank Ltd economist Ho Woei Chen and Forecast Pte Ltd economist Joanna Tan said exports could turn positive in the last two months of the year.
But Ho said the improvement in factory output in recent months was largely due to inventory rebuilding.
Tan said the verdict was still out on the sustainability of the rebound, especially in the global E&E sector.
“The rebound could be due to inventory restocking, so we’re still quite cautious,” she said.
