Posted on 23 Dec 2009
China sees exports rise 6% next year
China’s exports are expected to rise about 6% next year, recovering from a global slump, while the country’s imports are likely to rise 11% in 2010, a key Chinese government think tank said yesterday.
China is likely to record a trade surplus of about US$184bil in 2010, down 15.5% from this year, the State Information Centre said in the report published in the official China Securities News.
The thinktank warned that the yuan would face mounting pressure to appreciate against the dollar next year, but said yuan appreciation would harm China’s global competitiveness.
“Looking into 2010, the global economy will experience a slow and tortuous recovery, and our country’s external trade will have a recovery in growth,” said the report.
But it also warned that feeble consumer demand in Europe and the United States, trade protectionism and pressure for China’s yuan currency to appreciate could all “obstruct improvement in external trade.”
The report came after recent data showed a recovery in Chinese trade, with import growth outpacing still sluggish exports.
China’s imports jumped 26.7% in November from a year earlier, ending the 12-month streak of declines and beating expectations of a 20% increase. Exports were down 1.2% from a year earlier, after a 13.8% fall in October. The new report also suggested that stronger consumer demand could also boost Chinese growth in 2010.
China’s retail sales were projected to grow 18.5% in 2010, with the nominal growth rate being up 3.2 percentage points from 2009, as domestic consumption would contribute more to China’s economic growth, the thinktank said.
“With appropriate policy guidance, there is enormous potential for eliciting growth in consumer demand,” it said.
