Posted on 28 Dec 2009
Gross domestic product for 2010 should rise 3.5 per cent, after the year's estimated contraction of 2.8 per cent, according to the Finance Ministry's latest forecast.
Fiscal Policy Office director-general Sathit Rangkasiri said on Monday that factors driving next year's economy would be the funds from the government's Thai Khem Kaeng job creation and stimulus packages, the private sector's spending during the recovering economy, rising prices for agricultural goods and higher employment.
However, the fragile global economic situation, oil prices, the Map Ta Phut industrial estate impasse and the political situation could hamper the country's economic growth.
"The government should speed up its spending. The private sector has not yet fully recovered and it must quickly encourage this sector to be the main force in driving the economy," Mr Sathit said.
The 3.5 per cent economic projection for next year covers the possibility that investors may not invest in Map Ta Phut, where more than 60 industrial projects have been suspended due to environmental and health concerns.
"If the government can solve the Map Ta Phut impasse, spend at least 80 per cent of the Thai Khem Kaeng's approved budget and stabilise the political situation soon, the Thai economy has a chance to expand by four per cent," he said.
This year's economy would likely shrink by only 2.8 per cent, better than the previous prediction of 3.0 per cent, he said.
Although the Thai economy had dropped significantly during the first three quarters of 2009, the government's financial injection and the quick recovery of the country's trading partners had alleviated the situation.
The FPO chief believed the GDP in the fourth quarter should be positive compared to the same period of last year.
Macroeconomic Policy Bureau director and Finance Ministry spokesman Ekniti Nitithanprapas said capital spending in 2010 should improve from this year while the inflation rate should move up to 3.4 per cent in accordance with prices of oil and other products and services.
He said the export sector for the entire 2010 could see an increase of 15.5 per cent due to the recovering economy of trading partners and rising product prices in the global market.
Imports for next year may soar 27.7 per cent as spending within the country would likely increase.
The total value of investment applications filed with the Board of Investment this year was more than 514 billion baht, BoI secretary-general Atchaka Sibunruang Brimble said on Monday.
Mrs Atchaka said the 1,193 investment applications were worth a total of 514.59 billion baht, higher than the projection made in the beginning of the year of 114.59 billion baht.
She said 129,453 new jobs were created.
The BoI received most investment applications in September and October, while there were 264 applications worth a total value of 181.19 billion baht from Nov 1 and Dec 21.
Most investors were interested in service industries, public utilities, electronics, electrical appliances, metal, machinery, transport equipment and agriculture.
