Posted on 06 Jan 2010
Economists contacted by StarBiz yesterday predicted the latest monthly export figures, to be released tomorrow, would show a positive year-on-year growth for a second consecutive month.
This would be helped by the low base recorded in the same month in 2008, affected by the global trade collapse in the last quarter of that year.
The pace of the recovery, however, might show that the rebound would not be a smooth sailing one.
“We cannot expect to see a smooth straight line in the recovery process,” RHB Research Institute economist Peck Boon Soon said yesterday.
He predicted a 1% growth in exports for November versus a year earlier, which implied there would be a contraction compared with October’s “exceptionally” strong numbers.
Peck noted that export demand was usually the strongest in September and October, and would taper off somewhat towards the end of the year.
He sees a 3.7% contraction in exports for November on a month-on-month basis compared with October’s double-digit expansion from September.
Kenanga Research economist Wan Suhaimie Wan Mohd Saidie noted that some foreign-owned factories in the country had also slowed their output in November as they “re-strategised” for 2010.
“This may hurt export numbers in November,” he said.
Exports in October posted a surprise 1.6% growth to snap out of a 12-month contraction streak that began in October 2008.
Suhaimie projected a 6.9% growth in export for November. Imports, he said, would expand at a rate of 8.7% compared with same month in 2008.
The median forecast of 13 economists surveyed by Dow Jones indicated that exports might grow 2.5% in November, versus 1.6% in October. Imports might show a growth in November, which would be the first expansion since September 2008.
“We have reason to believe that exports have hit bottom and should stabilise and recover in the months ahead,” CIMB Research said in a report yesterday.
It said exports were on the mend due to the easing of contraction in global trade, moderate recovery in the major developed economies and improved demand for consumer electronics.
