Posted on 25 Nov 2011
The Cabinet-level Directorate General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics (DGBAS) revised downward yesterday (Nov. 24) its forecast for Taiwan's economic growth rate to 4.51% this year and 4.19% next year, while slashing its forecast for next year's export growth to 5.27%, less than half of this year's level.
The DGBAS predicted that the economy will reach the nadir in the first quarter next year before staging an upturn in the second quarter.
The economic growth rate will attain 2.67% in the first quarter next year, before rising to 3.64% in the second quarter, 4.99% in the third quarter, and 5.31% in the fourth quarter.
Tsai Hung-kun, director of the third bureau, DGBAS, remarked that the economy is staying at a contraction or even declining stage after hitting the peak in the first half.
The economic growth rate in the third quarter is estimated at 3.42%. Tsai pointed out that export of Formosa Plastic Group rose to NT$69.5 billion in October, up from NT$33.3 billion in August and NT$44.7 billion in September. In addition, arrivals of Japanese tourists shot up. As a result, the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter will bounce back to 3.69%, as expected, compared with 3.42% in the third quarter.
However, with the further deterioration of the European economy, export growth will continue to slide, almost to the level of stagnation, according to Tsai, Export is expected to grow only 3.86% in the first quarter next year and 2.6% in the second quarter.
The four industries of FPD (flat panel display), DRAM (dynamic random access memory), LED (light emitting diode), and solar energy will continue to suffer over-capacity and export decline, said Tsai.
Next year, the economy will not only suffer from low growth but also larger fluctuation. In the wake of the global financial tsunami, governments around the world embraced financial expansion policies concertedly. However, this time around, government policies of different countries vary.
