Posted on 16 Jan 2013
Forecasts for Philippine economy have remained upbeat with the projected higher consumer and government spending and favourable outlook for real estate and tourism sectors.
For instance, an economic outlook and forecasts by Metrobank’s research department showed that the country’s growth domestic product (GDP) will continue to grow at an average of six percent in 2013.
Because of the stellar growth in the first three quarters of 2012 and given the still rosy prospects, the Research centre has revised a full-year 2012 GDP growth forecast to 6.6 percent, while 2013 growth is seen at six percent.
Economic growth for the first three quarters of 2012 was at 6.5 percent, one of the highest among Asean economies, including China. The Philippines posted a third quarter GDP growth of 7.1 percent.
The strong GDP growth as of September 2012 is mainly attributed to the solid performance of almost all of the economic sectors.
“The Philippine economy seems to be on the road to a higher growth trajectory, surprising markets with remarkable expansions in the first three quarters of the year. The economy is thus seen to cap 2012 way stronger than what was previously expected,” the centre said.
This year’s projected GDP growth, the centre added, will be driven by solid household consumption as consumer spending will still be supported by sustained inflow of remittances and the still well-anchored inflation expectations.
“Government spending will also support GDP growth amid the expected boost from midterm election spending,” the research centre said.
On the other hand, the services sector will be supported by the rosy outlook for the real estate and tourism sectors.
With the Philippines branded as among the top destinations in the world by various websites and travel magazines, tourism players are expecting an influx of foreign tourists in the country this year.
Property development is also expected to surge, with the foreseen higher demand for housing and the massive expansion of retail malls all over the country.
For instance, leading mall developer SM prime Holdings, had announced they are eyeing five more SM malls in Mindanao alone.
Public construction, meanwhile, is expected to sustain its growth in the second half of the year on accelerated government spending ahead of the May elections, while the agricultural sector is seen to remain resilient amid the damage wrought by Typhoon Pablo in December.
As of the third quarter of 2012, household consumption spending registered a solid growth of 6.2 percent, albeit slower than the previous year’s 7.4 percent.
Government spending growth surged, posting a 12 percent growth from 8.9 percent on the back of an increase in the provisions and allotments for the programmes and projects of different agencies.
Net exports also performed strongly last year with exports posting still solid growth of 6.9 percent from a contraction of 11.9 percent and imports growth surging to 8.3 percent also from a contraction of 1.8 percent.
On the supply side, the agricultural sector growth rebounded to 4.1 percent from 2.2 percent, even amid adverse weather conditions during the quarter.
The industry sector, supported by the sustained rebound in construction, registered a stellar 8.1 percent growth from 0.1 percent. The manufacturing sub-sector, which grew 5.7 percent from two percent, also underpinned overall sector growth.
Services sector, the economic linchpin, posted a still solid growth of 7.0 percent from 5.2 percent in the previous year amid the still strong expansions across its sub-sectors.
The fastest growths in the sub-sectors came from trade at 7.0 percent from 4.5 percent, financial intermediation at 8.3 percent from 1.4 percent, and transport, storage, and communication at 9.0 percent from 4.6 percent.
