News Room - Steel Industry

Posted on 23 Sep 2015

China steel demand hasn't peaked yet, says Vale

Vale SA is pushing back against claims that steel consumption in China has peaked, saying demand in the world's top user has some way to go before it tops out.

But it is a view that contrasts with a rising number of global banks.

"China's steel consumption peak is still ahead of us, but of course the growth will be much more gradual," said Claudio Alves, global director of ferrous marketing and sales. "Vale is aiming to further increase our market share in China."

The world's largest miners are seeking to figure out the implications of slowing growth in China on the demand for and prices of everything from iron ore to copper. While Vale's bullish view echoes outlooks from Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group brought forward its peak-steel estimate to 2014 from 2020 and Credit Suisse Group AG forecast local consumption will shrink 10 per cent by 2018.

"Despite the slowdown of the growth speed, China still remains the economic engine of the world," Alves said in written remarks sent to Bloomberg before a conference in Qingdao that starts on Wednesday. Further urbanisation and infrastructure projects will underpin demand for iron ore, steel, copper and other base metals, according to Alves.

Iron ore prices sank in July to the lowest level in at least six years as the world's three largest producers including Brazil's Vale raised low-cost supply even as demand growth stalled in China. Ore with 62 per cent content delivered to Qingdao retreated 21 per cent this year to $US56.21 a dry metric ton on Tuesday, according to Metal Bulletin.

Peak-steel consumption in China occurred last year on a property downturn, ANZ said in a note on Monday, reducing price forecasts for iron ore for next year and 2017. Demand may contract to 695 million tons in 2018 from 773.7 million tons in 2013, Credit Suisse said in a report the same day.

Steel demand in China has peaked, whether tracked by per-capita consumption, overall steel stock in the country or the so-called steel intensity of gross domestic product, according to Zhu Junhong, chairman at steel-market research provider Mysteel. China's crude-steel output would drop 3 per cent this year as demand from the property sector faltered, Zhu said in an interview.